Few things are more difficult to predict than the long-term trajectories of hotly contested political races.
From April of this year, when Joe Biden entered the 2020 presidential race, all the way through to September, it looked as though the former vice president was going to run away with the Democratic nomination and was considered the only candidate with any real chance of challenging President Donald Trump.
Now, however, there is a distinct possibility that Biden will not even be the Democrats’ runner-up for the party’s nomination, considering that a new poll shows him to be in fourth place in the early caucus state of Iowa.
Biden’s slide continues
A New York Times/Siena College poll was released on Friday, which examined the opinions of likely caucus voters in Iowa, the country’s first major stop in the Democratic race for 2020. The survey shows Biden, the longtime frontrunner, to be in fourth place.
Leading the way is Sen. Elizabeth (D-MA), at 22% support. She is followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) at 19%, and then South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 18%.
Only after those three individuals does Biden’s name appear. The former vice president is sitting five points behind Warren at 17%. These results are a continuation of a recent trend in which Warren has been taking the lead while Biden falls behind.
No big deal?
Biden and his staff have been attempting to shrug off the fact that he is now trailing significantly in Iowa and to downplay the potential implications of that fact.
“Do we think we have to win Iowa? No,” said a Biden aide in a September phone call with reporters .”Do we want to win Iowa? Yes, we do. We think we’re going to win; we know it’s going to be a dogfight. The same thing is true in New Hampshire.”
How important are these two stops? Only one candidate in modern history has won his party’s nomination after losing in Iowa and New Hampshire, namely, Bill Clinton in 1992.
According to the Washington Examiner, “Iowa officials who have endorsed Biden are worried about his campaign’s attitude toward the state and cite the state director not living in Iowa as one reason for his fragile position in the race.”
Big problems
In addition to the New York Times/Siena College poll, Biden is also trailing in the RealClearPolitics primary poll average, which shows him has having dropped down to third place with 15.7% of the vote. Again, ahead of him are Warren at 22.3% and Buttigieg at 17%
Whatever the reason behind these poor numbers in Iowa, the simple fact is that Biden is no longer in pole position to win the state, and if this downward spiral continues, he is in real danger of losing the Democratic primary altogether.
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