Riding high on a strong debate performance last week, 2020 presidential hopeful Kamala Harris has overtaken Elizabeth Warren in the polls.
According to a new Hill-HarrisX poll taken after last week’s Democratic debates, 11% of respondents favored Sen. Harris (D-CA), while 9% preferred Warren (D-MA), The Hill reported.
On an upswing
After weeks of being overshadowed by the entrance of new candidates, Sen. Harris emerged as the break-out star of last week’s Thursday night debate. In the highlight moment, Harris put former Vice President Joe Biden on the defensive over comments he made about working with segregationist senators and his opposition to federal busing to end segregation in schooling.
While many are skeptical of the predictive power of polls, surveys taken in the last week show a Harris surge that coincides with the consensus that she won the first round of debates. In the Hill-Harris-X poll, taken between June 29 and 30 among 449 registered voters, Harris shot up 6 points compared to a previous poll taken two weeks earlier.
The Hill-HarrisX poll shows Harris overtaking Warren by a 2-point margin. Sens. Warren and Harris had been neck-in-neck before a June surge for the Massachusetts senator that left Harris in the dust.
Recent polls show Biden’s once-comfortable lead dropping, but he still has 33% support, according to the Hill-Harris X poll. Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT), who has also suffered a shrinking lead, came in second with 15%, a 2-point increase from the previous survey.
South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg comes in fifth with 6%, followed by Beto O’Rourke with 4%. Buttigieg has languished in the wake of a police shooting controversy in his city, while O’Rourke has struggled to maintain enthusiasm ever since an early campaign splash fizzled out.
The poll has a roughly 3% margin of error.
Neck-and-neck race
When the same poll was taken two weeks ago, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and O’Rourke were tied for third place. But the primary debates have shuffled and sorted the candidates into new places, with Harris being the biggest winner of the bunch.
When Harris first entered the race, she was quickly declared the frontrunner, but the entrance of Biden and O’Rourke, the sudden spring rise of Buttigieg and a June surge for Warren put a damper on the early enthusiasm for the former prosecutor. Now, Harris has reclaimed a place — at least for now — in the top tier of candidates.
CNN released a national poll Monday that showed Harris in second place, overtaking Sanders with 17% support. The poll closely reflected Thursday night’s debate: Biden suffered a steep drop down to 22%, a mere 5% lead on Harris. A Quinnipiac survey showed a similar result, with Biden dropping to 22%, just barely ahead of Harris at 20%.
A Suffolk University and USA Today poll of Iowa voters found Harris catching up to Biden, with the senator placing second at 16% to Biden’s 24%. Of course, it’s still early, and polls are just polls, but it appears that Harris is enjoying something of a summer surge.
Biden’s tumble seems to validate what many predicted about the Democrat: that he’s too old, and his politics too controversial for the left, for him to be the nominee. Harris, on the other hand, is Hillary Clinton 2.0, an establishment Democrat with a more progressive edge. Will that put her over the top?
No comments: