Joe Biden may still be the front-runner in the 2020 Democrat primary race, but it may be that he is simply too moderate and insufficiently radical for the current composition of his party. Biden’s campaign is looking increasingly precarious, and his lead may not last the month unless there is a reversal of current trends, according to Politico.
Biden’s claim to fame has always been that he’s the most “electable” candidate in the Democrat field. As his poll numbers continue to drop, however, he may not remain at the head of the pack for much longer.
For one thing, many voters are worried that Biden’s mental state is in decline. He has made gaffe after gaffe, causing some pundits to wonder if he is descending into senility. It all begs the question of whether he would be able to serve a full presidential term effectively, given his frequently memory lapses and public blunders.
Biden has also attracted scrutiny over allegations that he threatened to withhold foreign aid to Ukraine in 2016 unless a prosecutor investigating his son’s involvement with an energy firm in that country was fired. If it is possible to impeach President Donald Trump on mere speculation that he attempted to withhold aid to secure cooperation from Ukraine, it seems plausible that Biden wouldn’t make it too far into his presidency before he faced a similar fate, especially considering that he is on record bragging about having done precisely that.
Warren surging
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has picked up a lot of the support Biden has lost, according to multiple polls. Warren favors radical left-wing policies such as Medicare for All and student loan forgiveness. Biden has pointed out that paying for these initiatives will be problematic, but many Democrats seem to be tuning him out as an unviable candidate, making Warren the next best alternative for a growing segment of the electorate.
Warren has now pulled slightly ahead of Biden in state polls including South Carolina, Iowa and California. A new nationwide poll from Monmouth University also has Warren two points ahead of Biden, which remains within the margin of error but is indicative of a shift nonetheless.
“Biden’s support was always soft. That’s the key,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Unlike some of the other candidates, Biden’s support isn’t as locked in. He doesn’t have that ‘it’ factor.”
It seems to the be case that for a growing number of Democrat voters, any candidate who isn’t radical in their policy intentions and platform is just a bit too boring. If a majority of Democrats sign on to far-left, Warren-style progressivism, Biden is essentially finished as a candidate.
Biden’s hope
It may be that Biden is holding out hope that there is an upper limit on how much support Warren can still build and that once the Democrat field begins to narrow, voters will move toward the ideological center.
But are supporters of Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, or Beto O’Rourke likely to suddenly go moderate? The chances seem slim.
If Biden can’t turn this around, and fast, it seems as though he will fade into the background as a second-tier candidate, and the Democrat party’s radical transformation will be complete.
The silver lining, however, is that things will just be that much easier for Trump in 2020.
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