President Donald Trump is in trouble in the key primary state of New Hampshire, according to a new poll.
Trump is trailing a generic Democrat in a hypothetical 2020 match-up, according to a Suffolk University poll. 40 percent of respondents said they would vote for Trump in 2020, slightly less than 43 percent who would vote for a Democrat.
The poll also gives a clue as to who Trump might face, but it’s not too surprising: former vice president Joe Biden is leading the pack. Biden was considered the frontrunner even before he jumped in the race Thursday.
Trump behind in NH poll
New Hampshire is a critical state for primary candidates to win and, as a purple state, will be a battle-ground in the general election. Trump lost New Hampshire to Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a few thousand votes.
While Trump trailed the generic Democrat by 3 percent, 11 percent of respondents said they were uncertain, and 6 percent said they would vote third party.
The poll found that Biden had support from 20 percent of Democrats. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (I) tied for second place with newcomer Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, with both netting 12 percent. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) tied for third.
“Despite the dauntingly large number of candidates potentially on the New Hampshire ballot, more than half of possible Democratic primary voters are split among just four names: Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, and Warren,” Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos said in a statement.
The poll surveyed 800 likely general election voters between April 25 and April 28 and 429 likely Democratic primary voters.
Trump in trouble?
Biden is running as if he has already won the primary, focusing his attacks on Trump instead of his primary competitors. Biden’s message is pretty simple: only he has the popularity to beat Donald Trump.
Some say that Trump’s attacks on Biden betray a fear that the Democrat is a threat, and Trump has indeed been treating Biden like the presumptive nominee. The president has been on an anti-Biden tear since Joe jumped into the race, targeting fire-fighter unions who support the former vice president.
Conventional wisdom holds that Biden could win back swing states that Trump carried in 2016, and that’s where Biden seems to be focusing his energy, launching his campaign this week in his home state of Pennsylvania, which went to Trump in 2016. Biden kicked off his campaign with a speech to union workers in Pittsburgh on Monday, where he launched into a broadside against Wall Street and shored up his union credentials.
Some say that voters disappointed in Trump’s performance could swing to Biden or Sanders, who both have an appeal in rust belt states. However, as the New Hampshire poll shows, Biden is not the only challenger: Harris and newcomer Buttigieg are competitive as well. According to the Suffolk Poll, New Hampshire Democrats aren’t confident that Warren can beat Trump.
Despite the crowded field, only a handful of names appear to pose any real threat to Trump. But it isn’t good for Trump either that he’s trailing the generic Democrat, however slightly.
Trump is not likely to face a big threat in New Hampshire from his own party, despite a hyped primary challenge from libertarian Bill Weld. Trump easily beat Weld on a hypothetical ballot, 70 percent to 8 percent, as well as Republican small fry John Kasich, who got 9 percent.
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