After months of stoking anti-Trump fervor, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi shocked Democrats when she resolutely poured cold water on impeachment last week. Her decision was surprising and confusing, particularly as the newly elected Democratic majority in the House had launched investigations into the president that many saw as a prelude to the long-sought, long-promised ouster of the 45th president.
What does Pelosi’s disappearing act mean? Is she afraid, or just smart? Perhaps both, argues Edward Morrissey in The Week. Without bi-partisan support, pursuing impeachment could prove politically costly, particularly as support for impeachment has fallen among Democrats.
Pelosi’s mystifying impeachment shift
Pelosi’s announcement that impeaching Trump is “just not worth it” did not come as a total shock. Pelosi had long been ambivalent at best on whether to pursue impeachment before she made her opposition official to the Washington Post.
Yet, there is no mistaking that Pelosi has been a vocal and frequent critic of President Trump, nor is there much doubt that impeachment was a major midterm campaign theme for the Democrats. After winning back the House, they wasted no time getting investigations into Trump’s business, family, and Russia ties underway, in what was widely seen as a prelude to a bigger impeachment push.
So why the cold feet? Pelosi says that impeachment would be “divisive” and a mistake without solid evidence of wrongdoing, but her real reason might be pure partisan self-preservation. While impeachment has driven and continues to drive the party’s most radical, rank-and-file members, polls show support is actually slipping.
A number of polls have found that support for impeachment has declined since the election. A recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll found that half of Americans think Trump is the victim of a “witch hunt,” with support for impeachment dropping 10 points since October to 28 points. Another poll from CNN found support for impeachment had dropped seven points since December, from 43 to 36 percent.
Pelosi appears to be mindful of the Republicans’ fate in the 1998 election, when they lost seats after failing to oust President Bill Clinton from office. They succeeded in impeaching him but couldn’t muster the votes for his removal. Clinton’s popularity leaped and Republicans were punished in the following election.
Pelosi might be wary of repeating the GOP’s mistake with Clinton, and she has good reason to be concerned. With Robert Mueller’s probe of alleged collusion wrapping up, many Democrats have lowered their expectations that the special counsel’s final report will deliver the goods. And with the collusion argument in free fall, Pelosi’s impeachment decision might just be the best thing for her party.
Chicken and egg
Furthermore, with Republicans in control of the Senate, the odds of removing Trump from office are basically zero.
While Pelosi’s decision has upset the likes of billionaire impeachment campaign founder Tom Steyer, it shows that she’s still in charge of the party, even as radicals pushing for impeachment and radical Left policies threaten her control. Indeed, Pelosi might be making the smart decision for her party by having the prudence to look back at history.
What’s more, her decision just might kill off the impeachment craze for good. House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA), once so confident that Trump’s impeachment was imminent, as well as House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-NY), have both shown that they are taking Pelosi’s stance as their own impeachment North Star. Schiff said he wants “very graphic” proof. Some 41 percent of Democrats told USA Today said that Pelosi’s opinion on impeachment influenced their thoughts on the topic.
So is Pelosi cooling on impeachment, or is impeachment fever cooling off because of Pelosi? Pelosi was never really for impeachment, but even before her recent decision, declining support was reflected in polls going back to January and even December.
It’s a remarkable reversal after two years of non-stop speculation and drum-beating for impeachment among Democrats and in the media. Pelosi has defended her decision, saying it would be a “gift” to Republicans to pursue impeachment without evidence and that it would take Democrats’ “eye off the ball.”
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