Morning Digest: New House polls show Democrats ahead in two GOP-held House seats and tied in another

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The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Leading Off

● Polls:

AZ-04: OH Predictive Insights (R): Paul Gosar (R-inc): 57, David Brill (D): 25 CA-50: Monmouth: Duncan Hunter (R-inc): 53, Ammar Campa-Najjar (D): 38 NE-02: Siena for the New York Times: Don Bacon (R-inc): 51, Kara Eastman (D): 42 NJ-03: Siena for the New York Times: Andy Kim (D): 49, Tom MacArthur (R-inc): 39 VA-07: Normington Petts (D) for End Citizens United: Abigail Spanberger (D): 47, Dave Brat (R-inc): 47 WA-08: Siena for the New York Times: Kim Schrier (D): 46, Dino Rossi (R): 45

A late August SurveyUSA poll gave Hunter, who was indicted last month, a smaller 47-39 lead, while a Campa-Najjar internal from around that same time found a 46-46 tie.

This is the first poll we've seen for Nebraska's 2nd District. Siena gives Donald Trump a 46-48 approval rating, which seems high for a seat he only won 48-46. However, the spending war has been very one-sided here. The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund has deployed close to $500,000 so far, while major Democratic groups don't appear to have spent anything.

By contrast, Siena's New Jersey 3rd poll feels a bit too good to be true. An early August Monmouth poll found MacArthur up 41-40, while an early September DCCC poll gave Kim just a 47-45 lead. Both parties have also been spending heavily here, which suggests that no one thinks Kim is anywhere near this far ahead. This is also the first poll of Washington's 8th we've seen since the early August primary. The poll gives Trump a 45-48 approval, which also seems very high in a seat he lost by that same margin. However, both parties are also spending plenty of money here, so both sides seem to be treating it as very much in play.