Iran is waging a “maximum pressure campaign” against the United States as payback for the Trump administration’s efforts to isolate the regime, according to a foreign policy columnist.
As a response to sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy, the embattled Islamic country is attacking the West’s oil supply in the Persian Gulf — but a war with Iran would prove costly, argues military and security writer Sebastien Roblin, who says there is a lesson for the Trump administration from Iran’s aggression: Pull back and engage diplomatically before starting another reckless conflict.
“Pressure campaign”
The United States narrowly averted war with Iran on June 20, after President Donald Trump called off airstrikes on Iran after being told of the likely human casualties. The strikes had reportedly been ordered in response to Iran’s downing of a U.S. drone, which Iran claimed had flown into its airspace.
Anti-war conservatives like Tucker Carlson argued that the aborted airstrikes had been in the works for months by a “military-industrial complex” seeking fresh conflict in the Middle East. According to Roblin, Iran’s aggression should indeed be seen as a response to America’s ongoing, but ill-considered, campaign to isolate and crush Iran with sanctions.
In May 2018, President Trump ripped up the 2015 Iran nuclear accord, which critics blasted as too soft on Iran. Iran continued to follow the restrictions on its nuclear program set by the deal for another year, until they no longer could, Roblin wrote.
The sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on Iran have crippled Iran’s economy, but without producing the desired effect, Roblin says. Indeed, the oil-reliant country has seen a steep drop in its exports of crude.
In response, Roblin reports, Iran is waging a “maximum pressure campaign” against the West the only way it can — by squeezing oil supply lanes in critical Persian Gulf waterways like the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, through which roughly a third of the world’s oil supply passes.
The United States has blamed Iran for recent attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz, and the glove fits, according to Roblin. Iran has both the naval capability and a motive to conduct drive-by attacks on oil ships passing through the waterways, which are narrow and largely fall within Iranian territory, Roblin points out.
An unwinnable war
Besides the ship attacks and the drone attack, Iran followed through Monday on threats to stop abiding by the threshold on its uranium set in place by the 2015 Iran deal. The regime is trying to send a message to the United States: back off.
As Roblin sees it, this is a message the Trump administration should heed. War with Iran would be an unwinnable disaster — “a losing game.” While America has uncontested military might, Iran could cause serious economic pain by throttling the oil supply, to say nothing of the human casualties of another protracted conflict in the desert.
Many anti-war conservatives have warned that war with Iran would carry a much worse toll than the Iraq conflict. Iran is a bigger, more powerful and more complex country than Iraq, with a zealous ruling party and a devoted citizenship that is ready for war to protect their country.
And while a land invasion of Iran might prove impractical, an air war would prove just as wasteful, argues Roblin. If it’s nuclear weapons that are the target, a missile battery would likely fail to destroy Iran’s nuclear stockpiles, which are stored underground, Roblin notes.
He adds that there’s a lesson to be learned: While President Trump continues to threaten Iran with sanctions and bellicose rhetoric about “obliteration,” Iran has proven that it will not change course when provoked. Responding to Iranian aggression with more aggression is counter-productive. Instead, America must seek diplomacy and give Iran a reason to come to the table.
Looking forward
All together, Roblin makes good points. While neoconservatives claim that “no one wants war,” they seem quite eager to come up with whatever casus belli they can find, even if the casualty is a drone or a tanker. By wanting war over downed drones, neoconservatives are letting taking the bait and letting Iran lead — but there is no happy ending to continued escalation.
One of Trump’s main campaign promises was ending wars in the Middle East — not starting more. Trump has already shown that he is hesitant to go to war again. As Roblin advises, the commander in chief must listen to his gut, not the advisers in his administration seeking endless conflicts abroad.
No comments: