When Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections, some assumed the victory meant they had significant control over the entirety of the federal government. Indeed, one famous freshman congresswoman declared herself “the boss” and informed her critics that “we’re in charge” now.
But the lesson that has increasingly been learned over the past few months is that Democrats only control one-half of one-third of the federal government, and the other half of that third — the Republican-controlled Senate — doesn’t share their progressive agenda. Despite Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s best efforts, most of her party’s legislative efforts are destined to die on the desk of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).
Token legislation
Rep. John Yarmuth (D-KY), chair of the House Budget Committee, told Politico, “I’m not sure that anything we do is going to reach the floor of the Senate. That’s the reality.”
That may be the reality, but it’s nothing new in our nation’s history of divided government. Recall when the Republicans — riding the wave of the tea party movement — reclaimed the House in 2010, only to watch their own agenda stall out and die as then-Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid refused to bring any Republican-backed House bills up for a vote.
GOP Senate “firewall” against House Dems
As Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) described it to Politico, the Republican-controlled Senate is acting as a “firewall” at the moment, protecting not only vulnerable Republican senators from potentially troubling votes — while also denying Democrats “wins” that they can run on — but also sparing President Donald Trump from unnecessary veto battles with the House.
Of the House Democratic agenda, Republican Senate Majority Whip John Thune said, “Most of that stuff is really easy for Republicans in the Senate to message against.”
“We think a lot of the ideas over there are crazy. I don’t see many of our folks who have much problem messaging against most of what their agenda’s going to consist of,” he added.
The House Democrats’ crazier ideas actually stand the best chance of making it through the firewall for a vote in the Senate, not because Republicans agree with them, but because some consider it politically beneficial to force Senate Democrats — particularly those running for president in 2020 — to take a stand on controversial legislation, or cop out and vote “present,” which may not go over too well with voters.
That gambit just played out over the economically-suicidal Green New Deal proposal, for which not a single Democrat senator had the guts to vote “yes” on. Even Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA), who co-sponsored the bill, did not vote for it.
It’s possible McConnell could do the same with other leftist proposals from the House, such as “Medicare for All,” efforts to change the makeup of the Supreme Court, or legislation to do away with the Electoral College. Items that are unlikely to ever receive a vote, much less even be debated, are attempts to completely overhaul the electoral system or strict gun control measures.
Divided government
One area where House Democrats and Senate Republicans may be able to work together is on an infrastructure package, for which President Trump has been calling since his election. But moments of true bipartisan cooperation have been few and far between in recent years, and given the fact that our nation stands on the verge of an election year, the prospects of such cooperation are even less likely.
While some bills will manage to make it through both the House and Senate, they will most likely be small and limited in scope. Don’t expect to see any major agenda wins for either side until after the next 2020 election cycle.
This shouldn’t surprise anyone, however. Gridlock in Congress has become standard operating procedure in recent years, and this is far from the first time that the Senate has served as the place where bills from the opposition-controlled House go to die.
In the end, for Congress to once again work in a bicameral fashion with agreement between the House and Senate, there must be one party holding control over both chambers. Of course, as conservatives witnessed in President Trump’s first two years, even that is no guarantee of success.
No comments: