This, right here, is what is going on —>
Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns/NY Times:
Kavanaugh Could Help G.O.P. in Senate Midterms. But Not in House Races.
With that Senate majority squarely in mind, Republicans are also making a concession to stark political realities. Party leaders have concluded that supporting Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination, in the face of sexual assault accusations against him, will all but ensure that Republicans lose control of the House in November even as their fortunes may improve in some tough Senate races…
But Republicans, particularly the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, appear to be gambling that their majority in the House is already in tatters, and that it is worth trading for a legacy-making appointment to the Supreme Court and the chance to retain their 51-to-49 Senate majority…
They figure Kavanaugh will make women turn out for Democrats (losing the House), and will make aggrieved white males turn out for Republicans (keeping the Senate because of the favorable map). They could be right. But at what price? Supreme Court legitimacy? And they might not even be right, since indies matter. But when it comes to a vote in the Senate, the swing voters aren’t just voting on Kavanaugh, they are voting on their majority. The only reason Jeff Flake is even in play is because he is retiring. Meanwhile opposition is growing: The Reuters/Ipsos poll, which was conducted after the allegations were publicized, also found that 41 percent of adults opposed Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court. That was up about 5 percentage points from a similar poll conducted from Sept. 18-24.And they have no Plan B. if Kav goes down, 4-4 court until after the election.
No comments: